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Inflatable

"Short-term phase of favourable broker, but is not a market turning point." Gao Hua Securities on the view.

Gao Hua Securities believes that the reduction in stamp duty has always been the market is not turning point. Only the A-share market Inflatable Water Game fundamentals change (rather than the broad market is expected to lower the stamp duty on such short-term policy incentives) to make China's stock broker a sustained recovery. It is worth noting that since 1995 China's stock market four times in the stamp duty reduction, only three are in the short term push up the volume and stock prices, the market failed to reverse the downward trend.

However, also admitted that high, short-term broker in China will be the main beneficiaries of the stamp duty cut one, because its stock price and the A-share market and the overall trend of turnover there is a high degree of correlation. Brokerage in Inflatable Water Game China, the most optimistic about high-CITIC Securities (600,030 market, stock it).

The reason for the high-mainly due to: 1, which almost all the major lines of business are in the market-leading position, 2. Brokerage and investment banking business of growing market share that the company's strong operating momentum, 3. Despite the weak market, but its Asset management business (especially the Chinese Fund) on revenue of the considerable contribution (in 2008 is expected to contribute 15 per cent).

However, if CITIC Securities (Thursday limit at 32.13 yuan) than the current stock price of 31.5 yuan (demolition shares) for the 12-month target price higher than the 15 percent to 20 percent, Feng Gao Gao, nor recommendations to buy, But proposed to use this time to profit-taking because the market is facing inflation and China's continued economic recession in the United States / credit market shocks in these two aspects of the negative macroeconomic factors.

Gao Hua believes that these factors will increase Inflatable Water Game the profitability of Chinese enterprises pressure, and may make the A-share market rebounded sharply unsustainable.

Gao Hua Securities CITIC to maintain its current neutral rating and the dividend discount model, based on the 31.5 yuan for the 12-month target price.

It is worth noting that at present, while maintaining high on Hongyuanzhengquan (000,562 market, stock it) and sell rating based on the relative market valuation of the 12 yuan by the 12-month target price.

State Daishin Securities analyst Tang Xiaosheng, chief strategist and policy analyst Cuirong the holder in fact the opposite view.

Special emphasis on the letter that the stamp duty cut sharply restricting the market to break the good "yoke."

Stamp duty on the understanding of policy, a more general awareness is: stamp duty adjustment does not change the market trend. But this understanding is not deep.

This year, a quarter of the stock market because of stamp duty on stock transactions "leakage" nearly 600 billion yuan, brokerage commissions of about 30 billion yuan, the total "leakage" nearly 90 billion yuan, the whole could be as high as 300 billion yuan and above. If there is no such "leakage" and its effect equivalent to 100 3 billion fund full-scale warehouse operation, the index rose at least 500 points.